Understanding and Applying Forecasting

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Level: Intermediate

Why you need this course:
After completing this course, you’ll be able to evaluate the workers compensation losses your organization might face and choose an appropriate risk management technique to manage a particular workers compensation exposure.

Upon successful completion of this course, you should be able to:

  • Explain why loss forecasts are important to organizations, risk management professionals, and the risk management process.
  • Explain how relevant, complete, consistent, and organized loss data are developed and why such data are important.
  • Explain probability distributions and their characteristics.
  • Contrast theoretical and empirical probability distributions.
  • Use the standard deviation of a normal probability distribution to calculate probabilities.
  • Describe the risk management significance of trend analysis and the two methods of trending loss data.
  • Given a case, analyze past data using the appropriate forecasting technique to project the expected value of the accidental losses that an organization will incur during a given time period.
  • Calculate the joint probability of the following:
    • Two or more independent events
    • Two or more dependent events
    • Two or more sequential events
    • Two or more events’ not occurring
  • Calculate the alternative probability of the following:
    • Two mutually exclusive events
    • Two nonmutually exclusive events
  • Calculate trend lines showing the following:
    • Combined effects of two or more trends that can properly be added
    • Constant percentage rate of change

Cost: $20 per Professional Development Hour (PDH). Information on Professional Development Hours (PDH) provided can be found here.

Understanding and Applying Forecasting Topics Include:

  • Importance of Loss Forecasts
  • Importance of Loss Data and How Loss Data Are Developed
  • Theoretical and Empirical Probability Distributions
  • How to Use the Standard Deviation of a Normal Probability Distribution to Calculate Probabilities Based on Integer Values of Standard Deviations
  • Risk Management Trend Analysis and the Two Methods of Trending Loss Data
  • How to Use the Appropriate Forecasting Technique to Project the Expected Value of Accidental Losses that an Organization Will Incur During a Given Time Period
  • How to Calculate Joint Probability of Two or More Independent Events, Dependent Events, Sequential Events, or Events’ Not Occurring
  • How to Calculate the Alternative Probability of Two Mutually Exclusive Events or Nonmutually Exclusive Events
  • How to Calculate Trend Lines Showing Combined Effects of Two or More Trends That Can Properly Be Added and the Constant Percentage Rate of Change

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